MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11869ca1d4e2c462e31c9b7133af666a6177ef44bf472a3cb875a5f0497ea8c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 31c | 7,588$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Colorado Rockies | 69c | 5,076$3,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.56 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Colorado Rockies | 69c | 1,445$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.08 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 679.5$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.44 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 450.58$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.85 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 440.52$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.52 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 74c | 383.17$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 72c | 336.39$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 321.06$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Colorado Rockies | 79c | 314$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 69c | 289.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked San Francisco Giants | 25c | 220.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 27c | 203.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Francisco Giants | 30c | 199.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 171.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Colorado Rockies | 69c | 144.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Colorado Rockies | 69c | 144.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 142.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Colorado Rockies | 67c | 137.73$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 64c | 134$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 126$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Francisco Giants | 16c | 109.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Colorado Rockies | 69c | 109.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Colorado Rockies | 77c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Colorado Rockies | 75c | 60.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…549dbacked Colorado Rockies | 69c | 58.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed San Francisco Giants | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 43.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 32.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 20.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 18.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 20.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.