MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23cdf4d096d934da2d64b0e02294c7827f4a54dfffcf60082ee2930a02290c1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 8,192$3,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,186.42 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 7,042$4,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…b478backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 3,379$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Colorado Rockies | 63c | 2,160$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 968.01$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 781.84$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…bf27backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 778.46$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 566.75$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 404$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.21 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Colorado Rockies | 64c | 389.81$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.33 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 24c | 346.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Colorado Rockies | 42c | 279$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.94 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 226$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Colorado Rockies | 63c | 220$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…a6c0backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 201.84$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 197.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 123$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 100.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 88.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 77.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 76.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 75.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 36c | 74.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Colorado Rockies | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 38.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 36.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 34.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 33.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 32.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 27.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 26.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Colorado Rockies | 64c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 24.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 23.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 18.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 20.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.