Serie A · resolved market
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a4a15cdc9fba89361d778a0f3aeafff18003c7e3e9126e428338d2e604b662
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SS Lazioof ACF Fiorentina, SS Lazio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd10c…0645backed ACF Fiorentina | 13c | 7,633$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked SS Lazio | 50c | 3,027$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.63 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed ACF Fiorentina | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked ACF Fiorentina | 28c | 1,931$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.82 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…a2d6backed ACF Fiorentina | 18c | 1,902$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked ACF Fiorentina | 17c | 1,901$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25d4…26fdbacked ACF Fiorentina | 50c | 1,900$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked ACF Fiorentina | 16c | 1,899$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.51 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…21cbbacked ACF Fiorentina | 13c | 1,896$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed SS Lazio | 70c | 1,809$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.93 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ACF Fiorentina | 9c | 515.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed ACF Fiorentina | 18c | 451.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed SS Lazio | 72c | 393.28$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed ACF Fiorentina | 16c | 181.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked ACF Fiorentina | 18c | 142.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed SS Lazio | 63c | 92.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…21a8backed ACF Fiorentina | 50c | 78.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8205…5067backed ACF Fiorentina | 18c | 58.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed ACF Fiorentina | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed SS Lazio | 76c | 44.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked SS Lazio | 76c | 44.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed SS Lazio | 72c | 30.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed SS Lazio | 75c | 21.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.