Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5abff45d55a517bb370eda2f6b2ab347b73f56972cc41aee65335709331b9ac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 25c | 9,266$2,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,287.87 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 1,775$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.16 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 22c | 1,308$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.68 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…9645backed Under | 77c | 1,281$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.58 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 24c | 1,117$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.63 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 25c | 886.97$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.74 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 76c | 726.39$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.33 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 22c | 684.17$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.01 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 26c | 493.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 76c | 484$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 17c | 417.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 75c | 347.37$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 24c | 329.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x458c…ee3ebacked Under | 78c | 316.98$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 72c | 277.83$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…b2cfbacked Under | 77c | 257.27$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b11…6f75backed Under | 78c | 158.14$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Under | 78c | 158.14$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…dd56backed Under | 77c | 136.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 77c | 131.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 76c | 128.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Under | 77c | 127.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Under | 77c | 96.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 24c | 88.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 76c | 79.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed Over | 24c | 78.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…2044backed Under | 80c | 74.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 17c | 69.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 17c | 68.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 67.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 75c | 65.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Over | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 73c | 64.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…17dabacked Under | 77c | 64.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…474cbacked Under | 77c | 64.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 75c | 59.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 24c | 54.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…3479backed Under | 77c | 52.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 77c | 52.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 77c | 52.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -11.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 77c | 52.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Under | 77c | 51.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 67cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…509fbacked Over | 24c | 47.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 75c | 44.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 75c | 44.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed Under | 78c | 44.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed Under | 77c | 32.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 77c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Under | 76c | 23.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed Under | 77c | 22.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 73c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 73c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 73c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 73c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 73c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 73c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 76c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b99bbacked Under | 77c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.