Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11fa4c11feac8df1efdbc49496de31cb7acebf4a3116eb070589f46e5467c269
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 267.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 32c | 165.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…6279backed Yes | 9c | 161.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed Yes | 10c | 151.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 10c | 127.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 116.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 106.81$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 102.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 35c | 86.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 72.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 67.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 64.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 62.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 61.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 59.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 70c | 56.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked Yes | 24c | 52.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 70c | 52.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 31c | 49.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 69c | 43.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 41.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 38.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 30c | 38.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 28c | 35.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 32.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 74c | 25.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 23.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 75c | 23.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked No | 68c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 19.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 18.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.