TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,104
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,104 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked No35c2,051$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.281,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes80c1,150$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.3856048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes72c865.65$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.9217358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b52…589abacked No54c725.65$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.01128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.6wins-0.38per pick47cpaid-88.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No6c708.54$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.288628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes52c238.8$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.2516134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No10c210$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.552,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x872b…d4a0backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd1…3257backed Yes41c182.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.932540%10 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5546…c8cebacked No17c173.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.949819.4%19 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes49c170.01$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.7122932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No24c160.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.766,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No25c156.43$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c152.27$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No22c151$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.75,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No56c143.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.191,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4650…8be6backed Yes74c122.51$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.713961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed No56c121.43$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685151%26 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes78c121.25$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.254060%24 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes43c120.82$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.871,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed No56c120.73$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.411249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes57c118.19$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.455,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes35c113.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7733351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.64850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No50c111.34$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes47c111.15$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes44c106$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.364,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c105.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No53c102.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.913,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes40c100.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2325935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No23c99.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2384930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc002…6f57backed No55c99.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c99.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c98.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.449,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes52c75.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcce6…dd55backed Yes42c75.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.681650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes51c73.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3228441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes35c68.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4545236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes41c66.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.919,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No38c63.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.921,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes79c63.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1261365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No49c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.414043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No66c52.66$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.732,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No23c52.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4875…149bbacked No52c52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.044955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No39c48.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6211334.5%39 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes47c45.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9979040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes52c45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No54c44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7516045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes42c42.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6252446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No57c41.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.221339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes39c39.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No54c38.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6434853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes80c38.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.782,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd10…99b9backed No54c38.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.575752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes50c37.14$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.573,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No40c36.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.853,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9fd…fd0cbacked Yes43c34.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+51%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce3…a6bfbacked Yes43c34.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes42c34.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.845,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No59c33.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes68c33.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6699962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes53c30.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3926426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes38c30.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8840237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.42,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No33c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa11…908abacked Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.05520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-49.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No64c29.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.11,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa52d…a95abacked No53c28.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.384951%25 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3313…92adbacked Yes40c28.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.253138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes38c28.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7330652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes37c27.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.627130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked No48c27.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3524442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No63c26.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.742,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No52c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No55c23.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.041,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89cf…76b3backed No67c22.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.874158.5%24 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No63c21.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6922853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed Yes64c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5648261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd8a8…60ebbacked No62c20.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cbb…9b60backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015915.7%25 W · 134 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9bc…e46bbacked No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x237b…9f36backed No65c19.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.923262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf16…3a05backed No55c18.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1410667%71 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No62c18.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3865965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c18.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.24,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7603…2276backed No67c17.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4714674.7%109 W · 37 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.