Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d4a5689940d837f2a95045432df5e97967b2a74a4dffce65e76377aadaf017f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 43c | 680.83$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.58 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 16c | 483.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…589abacked Yes | 41c | 454.49$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 9c | 245.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 68c | 204.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 28c | 175.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 170.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 164.06$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 155.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed Yes | 58c | 146.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 142.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 129.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 122.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 12c | 122.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 121.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 119.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 115.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 24c | 106.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…5843backed Yes | 42c | 100.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 93.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 75c | 75.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 71c | 75.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 37c | 70.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…908abacked Yes | 47c | 60.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 20c | 59.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 56.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 80c | 53.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 20c | 51.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336c…9e25backed Yes | 38c | 49.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 37.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 33c | 33.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 40c | 33.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 59c | 32.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 28.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 22.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 71c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.