Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11fea807395f3f46566631405d71912eb70b32dce99722057ed356ddbdf3079e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,446$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 3c | 723.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 12c | 694.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed No | 60c | 550.83$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.54 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 546.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 453.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 3c | 408.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 41c | 251.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 12c | 241.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 219.27$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 15c | 199.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 10c | 175.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 164$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 20c | 146.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 142.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684c…7f5bbacked No | 72c | 138.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 133$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 34c | 107.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 105.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 79c | 94.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 23c | 93.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 21c | 90.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 19c | 90.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 66c | 77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 69.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 25c | 65.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 61.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 59.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 58.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 57.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 76c | 52.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 46.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 45.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 44.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 40.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 32.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 58c | 32.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…0124backed Yes | 63c | 31.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 28.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 77c | 28.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 27.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 26.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…e2a5backed No | 73c | 24.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 60c | 16.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…1310backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.