Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x120bace883770b8c1576c23d0babbc095041b69bea7c1b1ad0cb34c311d20a25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 45c | 422.41$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.85 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 47c | 246.38$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 62c | 240$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed No | 39c | 227.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 183.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1ae7backed Yes | 62c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 48c | 123.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 63c | 121.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 206 | 44.2%91 W · 115 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 107.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 106.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 48c | 103.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 85.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 40c | 65.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 60.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 47c | 56.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 48.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 51c | 47.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 35c | 46.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 37c | 37.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 31.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 40c | 31.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 119 | 68.1%81 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 29.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 27.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 26.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 62c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 64c | 22.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…f233backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.