Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ad0353e38784493c1b776999e72fdc85a6d9b5c4b621f044947aec7a54908d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 424.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ec01backed Yes | 30c | 328.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 9c | 237$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 234.74$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.24 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 205$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 184.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 8c | 159.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 67c | 157.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1ae7backed No | 62c | 149.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…87e7backed Yes | 34c | 144.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 143.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…c324backed No | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 55c | 129.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 33c | 118.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…2da3backed Yes | 34c | 111.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 109$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 63c | 106.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 52c | 100.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 78 | 89.7%70 W · 8 L | +28.3wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 81+0.28 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 98.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 77.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 34c | 73.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +11.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 72c | 69.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 32c | 62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…db4fbacked Yes | 35c | 56.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 37c | 51.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 30c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…c7d4backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 44.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…a7bebacked No | 67c | 42.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 38c | 41.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 40.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 37c | 40.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 37c | 39.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 112 | 72.3%81 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…f2aebacked No | 69c | 36.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 35.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 35.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 65c | 34.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…82dcbacked No | 68c | 31.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 29.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 28.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 27.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 69c | 25.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 24.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 24.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…c191backed No | 65c | 22.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 22.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 21.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 20.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.