Golf · resolved market

Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 The Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x121aafaf614313e38e2c76dc1685e65a26adc6f0573ed43dff4ffaf1de53801a

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,286

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,162 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	16c	300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	137	39.4%54 W · 83 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes	20c	230$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	233	19.3%45 W · 188 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	105	46.7%49 W · 56 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	15c	78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No	80c	53.29$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.79	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.25per pick	52cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No	79c	21$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.41	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	16	81.3%13 W · 3 L	+3.0wins	+0.19per pick	63cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	71cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-29%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 The Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event