Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1257edc8db61fdf7ecc216f58d8dfc0fda4a4f86fd0ff8af509e9cd0a0be10ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 547.72$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 453.29$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 75c | 389.7$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes | 30c | 314.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 296.74$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 28c | 282.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 25c | 282.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 35c | 266.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 60c | 238.28$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 176.23$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 61c | 163.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 150.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 119.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 116.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 35c | 116.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 115.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 46c | 97.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 96.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 89.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 87.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 73c | 85.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 85.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 29c | 81.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 78.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 33c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 74.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 74.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 55c | 70.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed No | 73c | 68.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 71c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 64.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 57.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…5609backed Yes | 38c | 53.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 28c | 53.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 30c | 52.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 52.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed No | 77c | 51.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 73c | 49.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 49.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 37c | 47.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 47.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 49c | 46.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 41c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 41.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 70c | 39.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…d113backed No | 80c | 38.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 41c | 35.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 34.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 34.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 38c | 32.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 35c | 31.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 30.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 53c | 27.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 27.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 27.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 71c | 27.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked No | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 26.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 62c | 26.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 74c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 62c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 45c | 24.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 69c | 21.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 73c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…4ed0backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…1b2bbacked No | 73c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…4dedbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.