Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1b5beb4cec9a034118acb6812d73adfd0b4fc2bf1a15760c16fd7d8009ae8dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 1,446$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 58c | 772.99$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.32 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 691.73$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 33c | 544.3$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.06 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 489.27$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 394.18$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 370$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 223$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 212.57$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 51c | 199.25$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked No | 50c | 197.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 191.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.03 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 162.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 152$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed Yes | 43c | 141.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 141.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 131.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 113.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 61c | 111.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 107.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 106.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 75c | 104.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 103.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 102$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 38c | 101.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 100.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…9f36backed Yes | 40c | 92.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 77c | 91.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 79.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 54c | 76.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 74.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 72.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 61c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 68.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 56c | 67.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 38c | 60.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 30c | 58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 41c | 55.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked No | 45c | 55.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 53.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 39c | 50.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 49.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 64c | 47.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 41c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 39c | 40.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 39.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 43c | 39.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 47c | 38.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 37.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Yes | 46c | 36.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 57c | 35.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 40c | 35.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 34.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 31.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 46c | 30.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 30.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 27.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 60c | 26.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 64c | 26.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 56c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed No | 68c | 18.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 18.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 66c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 16.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.