Music · resolved market
Will Drake have exactly 9 songs in the Billboard top 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x126d0b85207cb7924f27a7e88465487f5c6cb2450edfcc343cf01fcb5264ad9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 8c | 11,541$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.89 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 1c | 2,552$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 17c | 2,149$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.2 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 5c | 1,300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…1390backed Yes | 67c | 1,170$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 894.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 2c | 724.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…cd3bbacked Yes | 75c | 691.85$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked No | 38c | 651.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 2c | 645.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…0d4fbacked No | 3c | 604.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 4c | 552.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 3c | 468.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 8c | 446.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 4c | 380.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 9c | 341.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…7dfebacked No | 6c | 266.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +813.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 4c | 259$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.35per pick | 21cpaid | +237.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed No | 35c | 207.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 7c | 154.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed No | 34c | 106$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes | 63c | 32.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 76c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…4c1abacked Yes | 69c | 14.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Drake have exactly 9 songs in the Billboard top 10?this page
- Will Drake have exactly 10 songs in the Billboard top 10?No won
- Will Drake have exactly 2 songs in the Billboard top 10?No won
- Will Drake have exactly 3 songs in the Billboard top 10?No won
- Will Drake have exactly 8 songs in the Billboard top 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.