Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12a0673d94a38928256f9ce2c2d81daae2141e33092facb6c462b4fd21660ec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 471.18$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.72 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 60c | 288.47$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 52c | 288.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.33 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 33c | 283.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 52c | 255.07$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.64 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 203.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked No | 36c | 194.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 192.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 187.82$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 62c | 171.4$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 160.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 49c | 143.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 142.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 140.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 14c | 140.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 52c | 135.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 49c | 120.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 50c | 111.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 36c | 101.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…9888backed Yes | 32c | 100.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfac7…e823backed No | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 92.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 92.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 16c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 86.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…4511backed Yes | 41c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 63c | 73.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 69c | 72.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 70.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 63c | 68.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 67.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 67.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 66.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 65.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes | 72c | 63.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 32c | 63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 40c | 62.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…f73bbacked Yes | 47c | 61.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…12c5backed Yes | 66c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 54c | 59.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 38c | 56.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 37c | 56.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 31c | 54.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 48c | 52.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 38c | 51.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 61c | 49.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…8794backed Yes | 43c | 46.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 46.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 50c | 44.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 42.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…5bc2backed Yes | 59c | 42.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 41.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 42c | 39.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 49c | 39.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 32.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 43c | 29.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 50c | 28.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…5a8dbacked Yes | 42c | 28.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe314…3c94backed No | 74c | 26.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Yes | 50c | 25.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 45c | 24.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cd…0a0dbacked Yes | 57c | 24.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed Yes | 62c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 47c | 23.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 63c | 22.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed No | 64c | 21.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 62c | 21.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 71c | 21.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 67c | 20.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 78c | 20.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…0799backed No | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.