Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd042fb1b8ab9894630ebfb745ad8ad0b78ee58bad0f2df102cd71ad18182e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 78c | 546.71$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.08 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 546.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 28c | 464.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.63 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 429.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 6c | 319.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 6c | 228.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…3b9bbacked Yes | 9c | 191.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 74c | 173.55$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 19c | 156.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 134.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 14c | 132.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 96.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 90.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 87.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 82.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 82.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 33c | 76.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 63.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 28c | 56.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 19c | 55.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 24c | 51.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 31c | 49.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 78c | 41.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 37.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 36.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 34.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 32.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 32.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 29.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 24.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed No | 76c | 21.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 74c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 12.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.