Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7008be9e1f55d0dce3281ccdf02f24cdfa4877053e48e2d6214e6fa359a5ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 415.68$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 39c | 332.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 312.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 294$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 261.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 258.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 39c | 246.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 68c | 207.49$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 20c | 199.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 180.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 178.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 32c | 156.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 37c | 138.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 130.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 57c | 130.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3d…977abacked Yes | 21c | 123.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 62cpaid | -69%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 42c | 120.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 20c | 115.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 111.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 100.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 100.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 94.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 28c | 93.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 27c | 84.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 56c | 79.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 70c | 71.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 70.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 69.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 68.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 79c | 67.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 27c | 67.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 45c | 66.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 70c | 62.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed No | 80c | 62.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…f73bbacked Yes | 42c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…12c5backed Yes | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 31c | 60.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 25c | 55.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0820…4b09backed Yes | 36c | 55.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 51.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 51.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 41c | 48.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 73c | 45.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Yes | 28c | 45.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 44.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 32c | 43.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 74c | 40.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 27c | 39.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 38c | 39.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 28c | 38.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 36.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 71c | 36.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…c629backed No | 75c | 35.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 42c | 33.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 32.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 47c | 31.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 31.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 74c | 30.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 52c | 28.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 73c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 78c | 25.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 75c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed No | 77c | 24.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked No | 74c | 24.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked No | 70c | 23.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed No | 68c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 73c | 21.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked Yes | 67c | 20.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 63c | 17.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed No | 66c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.