TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

La Liga · resolved market

Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,757
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,757 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over24c7,629$1,801 inLost-$1,801.083,44443%1,482 W · 1,962 L+31.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2114…c1bbbacked Under68c7,349$5,000 inWon+$2,348.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over22c3,810$839 inLost-$838.6682844.8%371 W · 457 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over9c3,059$271 inLost-$270.6256439.2%221 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3a…e974backed Under73c2,613$1,909 inWon+$704.275345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Over5c1,822$98 inLost-$97.87837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick9cpaid+303.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over10c1,603$160 inLost-$159.5921831.7%69 W · 149 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over24c1,557$378 inLost-$378.4810943.1%47 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over8c1,527$127 inLost-$127.3941351.8%214 W · 199 L+17.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebb…8220backed Over16c1,250$200 inLost-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over2c1,063$24 inLost-$23.8233244%146 W · 186 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb89…82aabacked Over33c1,045$345 inLost-$345.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f2…1de0backed Over11c881.32$100 inLost-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8366…54ffbacked Over32c638.92$203 inLost-$202.54650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Over15c600$90 inLost-$9020843.3%90 W · 118 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over12c519.83$64 inLost-$64.4239338.9%153 W · 240 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2918…fe4abacked Over21c500$106 inLost-$105.53237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5fcfbacked Over22c185.92$41 inLost-$40.77825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over29c168.52$48 inLost-$48.3510251%52 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88ff…5102backed Over20c151.26$30 inLost-$303030%9 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over20c148.61$30 inLost-$29.92733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Over19c131.58$25 inLost-$256126.2%16 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over16c114.82$18 inLost-$18.271,49738.6%578 W · 919 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Over35c114.56$41 inLost-$40.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over15c103.6$15 inLost-$15.2514425.7%37 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Over10c100$10 inLost-$1090%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over28c88.91$25 inLost-$24.9113243.2%57 W · 75 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over16c85.09$14 inLost-$13.6168050.4%343 W · 337 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e03…8b79backed Over34c73.75$25 inLost-$25742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2104…82d7backed Under70c71.74$50 inWon+$21.747865.4%51 W · 27 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Over32c64$20 inLost-$20.48837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9da7…8bb1backed Under70c63$44 inWon+$18.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over24c61$15 inLost-$14.8514942.3%63 W · 86 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf756…3a81backed Under66c60.7$40 inWon+$20.7560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8195…3fedbacked Under69c49.4$34 inWon+$15.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc73a…ba42backed Under68c47.43$32 inWon+$15.024100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e97…8ffabacked Under70c37$26 inWon+$11.1540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1195…3763backed Under72c20.03$15 inWon+$5.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x546a…1988backed Under72c14.65$10 inWon+$4.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.