MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12bc70eb16df577df4b87513348e3d1be02286db1ad22c845017a99a287460bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 17,563$7,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200.84 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 17,078$7,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,001.98 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 15,000$8,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,150 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 7,210$4,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,956.02 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 6,000$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 5,500$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.99 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 3,295$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.49 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 2,446$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.02 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 337.27$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 175.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 130.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 546 | 54.9%300 W · 246 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Colorado Rockies | 79c | 123.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Washington Nationals | 21c | 123.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…0d2dbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 112.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked Colorado Rockies | 60c | 84.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 231 | 42.9%99 W · 132 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…b490backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 65.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 53.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…22c9backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 33.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 64c | 28.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Colorado Rockies | 72c | 23.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.