MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x210838255494f87f8f31c1c39e0a08d6991cd5dab91a746a1b109376d531e9d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 50c | 35,937$17,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,968.35 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 22,902$11,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,221.77 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 50c | 20,600$10,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,300 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 10,148$4,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,986.17 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 1,765$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.5 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 51c | 1,641$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.09 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 1,327$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.44 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 1,175$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.2 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 1,060$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 983.31$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.99 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 50c | 840.68$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.34 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 488.39$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.31 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 44c | 350.51$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.23 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 48c | 316.96$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 55c | 315.7$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.02 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 294.78$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 50c | 291$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 48c | 287.74$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 249.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 50c | 136.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 58c | 126.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 119 | 62.2%74 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 51c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 136 | 64.7%88 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 50c | 85.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 51c | 65.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 50c | 54.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…b490backed Over | 51c | 52.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 47.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 37.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 33.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 50c | 22.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 49c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 50c | 20.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d05…ce70backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.