Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon WTA (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Birrell/Gibson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12bdfe07fc4ef4d74c2e5d7a79270ce20b7addf87efb89fd8a56b6ff75fb1cf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aoyama/Liangof Aoyama/Liang, Birrell/Gibson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3663…8950backed Birrell/Gibson | 36c | 4,066$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.57 | 392 | 43.4%170 W · 222 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Aoyama/Liang | 64c | 2,598$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.59 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aoyama/Liang | 66c | 1,103$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.07 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Aoyama/Liang | 65c | 948.92$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.25 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Birrell/Gibson | 34c | 437.65$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.18 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Birrell/Gibson | 40c | 429.3$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e0…2e6bbacked Birrell/Gibson | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 517 | 44.7%231 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Aoyama/Liang | 76c | 373.12$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Birrell/Gibson | 37c | 351.68$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Birrell/Gibson | 35c | 337.2$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aoyama/Liang | 63c | 304.6$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Aoyama/Liang | 65c | 298.93$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.03 | 1,065 | 57.4%611 W · 454 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Aoyama/Liang | 64c | 254.2$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Birrell/Gibson | 34c | 173.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Aoyama/Liang | 64c | 155.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked Aoyama/Liang | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Birrell/Gibson | 18c | 122.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Birrell/Gibson | 37c | 118.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 176 | 46%81 W · 95 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Aoyama/Liang | 66c | 110.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 508 | 45.9%233 W · 275 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Aoyama/Liang | 58c | 106.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…7d17backed Aoyama/Liang | 68c | 103.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…a9a7backed Birrell/Gibson | 36c | 85.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Birrell/Gibson | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 324 | 52.5%170 W · 154 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…620ebacked Aoyama/Liang | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…f2ffbacked Birrell/Gibson | 37c | 58.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 292 | 37.3%109 W · 183 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Birrell/Gibson | 27c | 47.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…0e9cbacked Aoyama/Liang | 63c | 46.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Aoyama/Liang | 64c | 42.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Aoyama/Liang | 77c | 40.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Birrell/Gibson | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Aoyama/Liang | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 335 | 57%191 W · 144 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Birrell/Gibson | 35c | 34.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…e570backed Birrell/Gibson | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 520 | 35.2%183 W · 337 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Aoyama/Liang | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f07…24a0backed Aoyama/Liang | 53c | 20.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.