Ecuador leading at halftime?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12cdb1469635ba755865d6f58a783e0b78a121458b2e15027e1a2e0fb570ce03

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $136,275
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $130,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,275 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes	0c	30,666$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.67	229	59.4%136 W · 93 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec2…aebbbacked Yes	15c	13,320$1,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,949.96	50	34%17 W · 33 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	15c	7,834$1,211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,210.77	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ec…267dbacked Yes	18c	4,000$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	278	45.7%127 W · 151 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	17c	3,370$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.68	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Yes	18c	3,153$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.26	536	29.9%160 W · 376 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Yes	20c	3,077$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.61	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0e…2a0ebacked Yes	17c	2,999$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.77	342	47.7%163 W · 179 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72e…c780backed Yes	17c	2,342$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	145	39.3%57 W · 88 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbec0…9bddbacked Yes	10c	2,245$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.46	626	33.9%212 W · 414 L	-28.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes	17c	2,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	549	17.9%98 W · 451 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5c…98eebacked Yes	17c	1,944$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.55	97	40.2%39 W · 58 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed Yes	18c	1,509$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.61	783	17.4%136 W · 647 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5cf…c503backed Yes	11c	1,020$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.2	56	30.4%17 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+42.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec57…0fa7backed Yes	2c	915.37$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.64	388	19.1%74 W · 314 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7514…82d1backed Yes	3c	670.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	251	27.1%68 W · 183 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cfe…c83cbacked Yes	5c	645.83$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	362	34%123 W · 239 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes	19c	623.65$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.26	695	34.8%242 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	121	40.5%49 W · 72 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes	15c	548$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.2	1,941	35.5%690 W · 1,251 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x845b…5c2dbacked Yes	20c	505.05$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	57	35.1%20 W · 37 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc347…415dbacked Yes	14c	413.29$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.65	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-37%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	6c	394.69$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.09	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes	15c	386.18$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.14	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes	20c	372$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.4	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes	7c	367$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.65	361	39.1%141 W · 220 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	15c	346.88$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.54	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8733…5460backed Yes	16c	343.75$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	227	31.7%72 W · 155 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db2…dacabacked Yes	18c	300$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	193	24.9%48 W · 145 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2217…1660backed Yes	20c	299.5$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.43	635	44.4%282 W · 353 L	-18.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3d…85abbacked Yes	21c	296.52$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.27	364	48.6%177 W · 187 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…4997backed Yes	17c	294.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	235	13.2%31 W · 204 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+52%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes	16c	270.69$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.67	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1c…b3abbacked Yes	20c	212$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	275	20.4%56 W · 219 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad58…3773backed Yes	17c	162.65$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	94	39.4%37 W · 57 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6343…943bbacked Yes	17c	160$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	133	31.6%42 W · 91 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Yes	16c	149.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	815	54.8%447 W · 368 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes	11c	149$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.77	339	37.5%127 W · 212 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes	11c	132.16$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	350	34.3%120 W · 230 L	-24.0wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	13c	125.61$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xeaec…32a1backed Yes	16c	120$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	294	30.3%89 W · 205 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5238…ba99backed Yes	18c	111.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	153	35.3%54 W · 99 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd976…46dcbacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aaf…d7bebacked Yes	17c	105.88$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+2.7wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+15%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	698	26.1%182 W · 516 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	125	40%50 W · 75 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb400…852cbacked Yes	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c12…748fbacked Yes	20c	92.02$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	324	22.5%73 W · 251 L	-8.5wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd366…0184backed Yes	18c	83.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	78	42.3%33 W · 45 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Yes	19c	70.08$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	1,390	46.3%644 W · 746 L	+20.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x751f…e4ddbacked Yes	18c	67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	879	38.6%339 W · 540 L	+8.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	373	23.1%86 W · 287 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e55…a3fbbacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	389	33.2%129 W · 260 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c34…266dbacked No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	256	55.1%141 W · 115 L	-10.9wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Ecuador leading at halftime?this page
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Germany leading at halftime?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Ecuador leading at halftime?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event