Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12dff3fbb0b7249fa96cf98a292b89eaac0c2c6b47e9564bc77da75902f4afcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 373.94$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.73 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 5c | 346$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 326.08$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 39c | 225.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.47 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 188.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 62c | 183$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 37c | 160$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 154.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 69c | 136.97$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 112.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 34c | 111.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 61c | 105.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 103.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 32c | 99.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed No | 69c | 97.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 85.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 84.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 31c | 80.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 80.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 66.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 32c | 65.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 33c | 59.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 54.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 53.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 29c | 48.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 40.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 40.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 43c | 39.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…b20bbacked Yes | 33c | 34.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…cd98backed No | 38c | 31.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 39c | 29.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 63c | 28.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 63c | 27.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 69c | 21.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…bad1backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe526…ed21backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.