Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12e09036fa526fe844fa7ddd146ca4055bb0d5690890f3cdfef6ef5f492c3341
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 366.15$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 28c | 261$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 176.21$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 72c | 165.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 162.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…2419backed Yes | 29c | 159.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 139.69$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 29c | 135.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 133.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 111$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 81.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b3…74c4backed Yes | 27c | 79.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 29c | 68.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 30c | 63.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 56.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 54.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 72c | 54.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 53.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 53.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 52.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 36c | 47.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 70c | 38.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 36.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 34c | 33.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…b067backed No | 78c | 32.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 29.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 26.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked No | 64c | 25.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 70c | 22.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 72c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 73c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 73c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.