Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1319bb4e50c545d21bb25e533e464ebd47baa58e9b3166c320df54c7600dd0cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 436.4$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…14e8backed Yes | 35c | 399.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 354.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 328.95$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed Yes | 38c | 264.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 197.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 192.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 6c | 185.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 183.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 68c | 182.14$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 168.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 159.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 71c | 145.36$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 124.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 108$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 26c | 105.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 103.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 37c | 100.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…11abbacked Yes | 29c | 67.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 47.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 44.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 42.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 41c | 37.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…3aacbacked No | 67c | 37.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 41c | 36.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 32.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 44c | 30.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 30.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…cfd8backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 26.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 60c | 26.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 58c | 25.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 25.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 59c | 20.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 59c | 20.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 18.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.