MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13237b38fcf5a906c3c2db341b8b487f4260db21a8ad85746b3d195e4c79f498
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Under | 53c | 9,809$5,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,610.23 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 47c | 7,740$3,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,637.78 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 45c | 4,305$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.39 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 55c | 3,393$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.44 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 56c | 1,716$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Under | 56c | 1,696$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.3 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Over | 45c | 1,062$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.23 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…c403backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Over | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 44c | 545.45$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Over | 45c | 350$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 232.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Over | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…7becbacked Over | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 46c | 43.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b6…0d6dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pirates vs. Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Pirates vs. OriolesOrioles won
- Spread: Orioles (-1.5)Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.