College Football · resolved market
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13254d6506bf47bbf8d437e4703f2eced97d7c6476dcb61e278d478c46146aa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michiganof Wisconsin Badgers, Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 11c | 9,198$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.83 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Wisconsin Badgers | 11c | 4,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Wisconsin Badgers | 7c | 3,450$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.5 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…ee25backed Wisconsin Badgers | 14c | 2,446$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 12c | 2,320$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.04 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Wisconsin Badgers | 19c | 1,250$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.47 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wisconsin Badgers | 25c | 1,204$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.48 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 12c | 1,167$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wisconsin Badgers | 17c | 1,060$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.04 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 10c | 1,007$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 14c | 890$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Wisconsin Badgers | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 11c | 500.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90dc…5ba6backed Wisconsin Badgers | 25c | 400.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…efd2backed Wisconsin Badgers | 12c | 325$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 11c | 294.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed Wisconsin Badgers | 22c | 263.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Wisconsin Badgers | 14c | 253.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…00fbbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Wisconsin Badgers | 14c | 219.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Wisconsin Badgers | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Wisconsin Badgers | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Wisconsin Badgers | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Wisconsin Badgers | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc0…4ce8backed Wisconsin Badgers | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 13c | 93.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Wisconsin Badgers | 17c | 66.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michiganthis page
- O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan (-16.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan (-17.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan: O/U 43.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.