Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1359fdc38f1eabed9005a4acb52e40550ed8558f483dbc1bdd99340ffc7b1a82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 6c | 776.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 26c | 337.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 294.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 209.38$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 26c | 176.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 171.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 12c | 118.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 67c | 118.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 12c | 101.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…2fc3backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 98.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 85.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 18c | 82.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 82.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 70c | 76.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 75.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 70.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 70.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 68.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 18c | 67.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 66.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 31c | 59.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 34c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 33c | 56.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 54.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 74c | 54.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…893cbacked No | 67c | 52.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 31c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 25c | 46.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 74c | 43.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 41.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 41.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 40c | 35.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed No | 76c | 32.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 30.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…d594backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 78c | 29.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 80c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 19.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 74c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 75c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 79c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.