Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c71d3fc18621cabcd4d73cf97a8facd5365e3b118c78b8f7e63c627cc45095a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 413.02$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 295.92$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.59 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 65c | 252.52$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.58 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 45c | 248.7$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.06 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 79c | 223.52$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 36c | 212.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.79 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 212.72$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 204.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 182.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.78 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 123.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 39c | 116.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 78c | 113.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 104$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…2fc3backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 93.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 85.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 84.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 25c | 80.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 75c | 75.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 69c | 72.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 56c | 71.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 63.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 62.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 59.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 55.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 47c | 55.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 55.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 39c | 54.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 36c | 54.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 69c | 53.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 27c | 49.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 26c | 46.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 44.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 73c | 41.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 73c | 40.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 40.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 53c | 37.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 79c | 35.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 35.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 28.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 38c | 27.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes | 38c | 27.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 26.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 25.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 22.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…1fe2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 71c | 15.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 72c | 14.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.