Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x135aeeb66bfb00fae5b2b5ef4dd0971d61b1597f9d127993b87e8adcb5b59fd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked No | 72c | 3,611$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 3,559$2,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562.48 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 2,710$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.65 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed No | 43c | 2,222$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 1,428$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.83 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed No | 72c | 1,388$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 71c | 462.53$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.4 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 429.8$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.75 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 60c | 416.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.81 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 408.95$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.54 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…0857backed No | 73c | 405.48$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b3…6bfcbacked No | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 72c | 392$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.24 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…6628backed No | 72c | 372.22$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 29c | 365.39$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…1691backed No | 72c | 359.72$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 28c | 327$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.44 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…1943backed No | 65c | 247.2$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…3f12backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5212…29c7backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 34c | 58.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 27c | 55.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 72c | 50.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 55c | 42.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 72c | 38.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…1e71backed No | 39c | 34.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 22.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed No | 72c | 21.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 79c | 21.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…6c73backed Yes | 68c | 19.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1a2dbacked Yes | 79c | 13.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-01-17?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.