TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,209 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x48fe…b2b6backed No61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9503855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No58c4,236$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No62c4,126$2,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.033,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb2…7535backed No60c3,111$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes39c2,222$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.5814447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.999831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No57c1,992$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.771,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No61c1,579$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.6838748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed No56c1,470$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.81275%9 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+831.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed Yes36c1,400$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5043138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes32c1,284$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.782,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd6…400ebacked Yes40c1,158$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe930…b44dbacked Yes44c1,086$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.783537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ae…35e5backed Yes40c1,047$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No61c1,007$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.7310945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed No61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3902378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+46.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3909…335fbacked No60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4006053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x291b…2667backed No61c999.92$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.971154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x985f…43c6backed Yes40c892$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No61c800$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31231145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No60c782.85$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.271,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes41c756.1$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3105444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad28…770cbacked Yes38c737.62$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.243551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No60c713.93$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.9310057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45ba…9ed6backed Yes45c666.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9120…102cbacked Yes42c529.07$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No60c509.65$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.4111056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Yes40c495$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1982755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48d7…1bd1backed Yes44c386.36$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+63.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes41c380$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.838055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes39c341$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3415134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4212…ad52backed Yes40c310$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d7a3backed No60c305$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12019446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51be…1805backed Yes40c300$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1191030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb4e…86bbbacked No60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb368…66b7backed Yes40c295$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78d…81e0backed Yes26c282$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.523138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004854.2%26 W · 22 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes39c262.84$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5151136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes40c252.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004949%24 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e66…53dfbacked Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+39.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No63c210.92$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7516542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8016045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4daa…6920backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d20…2391backed Yes39c198.85$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.551241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes43c198.61$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8520436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Yes41c184.37$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.593847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No61c171.14$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.148946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked No60c170$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6811259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a4d…4eeebacked Yes43c162.79$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes45c151.96$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.382334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Yes40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed Yes40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606136.1%22 W · 39 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes41c146.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8993…222dbacked Yes43c139.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605259.6%31 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes42c134.13$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.512544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked No61c130$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.79062.2%56 W · 34 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503020%6 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f26…14f0backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503450%17 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed Yes43c118.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.775347.2%25 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Yes43c114.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.73930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506142.6%26 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Yes36c111.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes45c110$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.54639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb089…a271backed Yes38c100.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.085450%27 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4113851.4%71 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9493…7988backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433464.7%22 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1fe4…3f12backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd6d…c733backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d55…1e94backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154219%8 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes41c97.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409937.4%37 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02d…16cabacked Yes43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5990…6095backed Yes36c92.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes44c90.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406147.5%29 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No60c90$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3625855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes39c90$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76a2…1f3cbacked Yes40c87.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Yes39c82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.982941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c1c…b4f1backed No61c82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.982369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+42.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc3df…3e0cbacked Yes36c78.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.42070%14 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes38c78.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7119347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed No75c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.26553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Yes38c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.57834.6%27 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5649…99adbacked Yes40c70$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.677268.1%49 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes35c62.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49e…3b3dbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f1d…3dacbacked Yes40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.