Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x138983e2d5c1b91d0addf87fce7739337e688e598f34d4046ce23c6c54577756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x973d…9cbabacked Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +923.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 24c | 497.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.29 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…791bbacked Yes | 33c | 409.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.59 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 20c | 398.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.14 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 35c | 376.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 374.24$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…bd11backed Yes | 24c | 327.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 8c | 306.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.24 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 41c | 285.75$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 239.59$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 23c | 229$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 225$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 209.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 205.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…2b59backed Yes | 11c | 184.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 176.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 12c | 143.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.69 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4d…3375backed Yes | 15c | 128.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 10c | 124.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 19c | 123.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…eec6backed Yes | 57c | 123.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec6…2ad1backed Yes | 14c | 110.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 12c | 99.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 13c | 94.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 73c | 87.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 79.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 75.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…29e8backed Yes | 22c | 68.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 15c | 67.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed No | 76c | 65.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 43c | 63.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 53c | 63.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 40c | 59.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 21c | 57.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1c…05cfbacked Yes | 38c | 49.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…aa8dbacked Yes | 75c | 42.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce50…6db3backed Yes | 49c | 41.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 41.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…b347backed Yes | 54c | 35.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 76c | 35.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 22.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.