Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21ee3dc708151d61412f62e317d4af2d6d862b4c105267a9080318e301227a6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 722.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 364.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 34c | 263.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 260$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 225$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed No | 75c | 200.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 197.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 167.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 166.77$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 154.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…e17fbacked No | 62c | 151.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 148.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 130.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 63c | 127.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 122.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 117.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 115.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…352fbacked Yes | 36c | 110.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 78c | 88.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 81.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 15c | 76.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 17c | 67.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…88d2backed No | 76c | 36.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaf…61a7backed No | 65c | 36.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 35.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…2b59backed No | 60c | 33.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 30.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 44c | 22.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 62c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed No | 65c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…329abacked No | 65c | 17.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ba…16dcbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 75cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.