Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x138d8bc3932e6f0c5468fb252b4aa3d2473804adf4355ed2c69cfc6fbb3166e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3334…b05ebacked Yes | 26c | 306.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 303.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 145.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 32c | 115.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 24c | 114.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 108.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 27c | 102.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 93.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 92.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 92.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 88.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…2c1ebacked Yes | 23c | 87.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 25c | 83.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 23c | 65.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 22c | 57.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…3afebacked Yes | 30c | 54.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 27c | 51.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 32c | 51.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 47.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 47.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 76c | 45.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked Yes | 27c | 44.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 41.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 77c | 37.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 36.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 77c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 30.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 70c | 28.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 68c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 72c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.