Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b9be448508bc47427a42bfe169c7294d9adc0170e0a91c7284de1bbc53e3b67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 56c | 347.89$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.25 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 7c | 246.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 218.28$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 199.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 191.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 155.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 39c | 149.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 32c | 144.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 143.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 55c | 135.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 125.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 67c | 124.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 74c | 124$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 32c | 102.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 54c | 92.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 36c | 78.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 71.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 28c | 64.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 64.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 55c | 56.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 56.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked No | 32c | 55.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 53.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 50.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…2c1ebacked Yes | 33c | 50.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 48.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 30c | 45.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 43c | 45.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 42.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 41.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 35c | 41.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 30c | 39.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 39.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 56c | 39.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 66c | 36.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 34.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 34.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 33.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 54c | 32.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4404…be3dbacked Yes | 34c | 32.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +175.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 35c | 30.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 57c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 25.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 44c | 25.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 54c | 23.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 64c | 16.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.