Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b9c1e584d51bf3fc5e4575819bc1d83561ee032c97f21774b484025a6bf1764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 31c | 588.93$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.24 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 50c | 437.65$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 33c | 298.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 290.93$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 256.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 39c | 226.71$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.97 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 202.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 8c | 196.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 24c | 195.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.62 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 194.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 190.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.81 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 15c | 187.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.54 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 152.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 34c | 137$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 126.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 124.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 124.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 124$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 21c | 114.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 21c | 102.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 30c | 102.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 80c | 100.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 98.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 16c | 96.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 86.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 69c | 82.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 82.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 80.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 80.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 76c | 70.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 35c | 67.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 66.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 65.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 32c | 61.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 17c | 58.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 29c | 56.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 50c | 55.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 54.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 78c | 54.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 71c | 53.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…cedfbacked Yes | 30c | 51.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 48c | 50.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 70c | 49.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 77c | 43.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 33c | 38.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 27c | 38.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 30c | 37.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 35.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 42c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 66c | 34.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 31.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…2c1ebacked Yes | 61c | 27.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 27.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 27.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 72c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…05c3backed Yes | 78c | 25.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 68c | 21.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 80c | 20.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 20.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 68c | 17.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.