MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13c218feae299737ee2f5026c1d22da7505155b4d2add1e2126f05d693a721c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 57c | 193,160$109,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83,165.08 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 42c | 100,014$42,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,006.47 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 76,230$33,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,970.25 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 15,157$6,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,297.69 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 56c | 4,464$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.29 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 4,023$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770.03 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 1,969$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.71 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 56c | 1,286$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.87 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 46c | 1,065$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.79 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455e…f7f9backed Under | 68c | 1,057$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 55c | 470.28$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.62 | 240 | 59.2%142 W · 98 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 42c | 306.59$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 46c | 290$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 46c | 187.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 47c | 185.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 24c | 115$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 46c | 97.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…4b24backed Over | 42c | 96.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Under | 56c | 87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 46c | 72.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 42c | 63.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…4d66backed Over | 39c | 51.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 44c | 49.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…b8e1backed Over | 44c | 38.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0172backed Over | 42c | 31.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 58c | 31.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8d…d241backed Over | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd139…0309backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.