NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13c8055daaa411a14c1efa886c65c952d07a8edcfb837e122fda28944b8cbce4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 6c | 1,525$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.16 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 77c | 1,298$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.41 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 22c | 1,031$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.7 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 22c | 460.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 78c | 367.85$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Under | 24c | 249.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Under | 20c | 204.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 77c | 132$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 79c | 95.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 19c | 59.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…e021backed Over | 77c | 36.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…cacfbacked Over | 77c | 34.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…8a41backed Over | 77c | 34.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…f13abacked Over | 77c | 33.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077b…11d4backed Over | 77c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570a…fe3ebacked Over | 77c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…88a0backed Over | 78c | 29.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…4d52backed Over | 77c | 29.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…cbc8backed Over | 77c | 29.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…3bafbacked Over | 77c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8047…0a8dbacked Over | 77c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe2…49d1backed Over | 77c | 27.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…97f7backed Over | 77c | 27.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…4843backed Over | 78c | 27.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8be6…221cbacked Over | 77c | 26.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…8b41backed Over | 77c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1a…7451backed Over | 78c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d22…a206backed Over | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec81…c2f4backed Over | 77c | 24.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…6bc6backed Over | 77c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…5025backed Over | 77c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe9…7c35backed Over | 77c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce02…8ca5backed Over | 77c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…bfefbacked Over | 77c | 24.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…b5fdbacked Over | 77c | 23.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…1f81backed Over | 77c | 23.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…f4f1backed Over | 77c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10c…9bb3backed Over | 77c | 22.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…6253backed Over | 77c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812e…2fbabacked Over | 77c | 22.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…fd77backed Over | 78c | 21.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…7ed8backed Over | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…40adbacked Over | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…db1fbacked Over | 77c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…c0f8backed Over | 77c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…d900backed Over | 77c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…9ce1backed Over | 77c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cf…ad38backed Over | 77c | 17.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…6a00backed Over | 77c | 16.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8c…7a0cbacked Over | 77c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…df55backed Over | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…abaebacked Over | 77c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…5ae8backed Over | 77c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7913backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. DucksGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Golden Knights won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.