NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd77455ea4888b3649124ba973283d2905acc4893a6267f1cf45659a71cbbe020
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Ducks, Golden Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Ducks | 30c | 4,324$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.7 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Ducks | 29c | 3,204$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.45 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights | 70c | 3,000$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Golden Knights | 70c | 2,670$1,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.99 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdb…62e5backed Ducks | 31c | 1,548$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Golden Knights | 70c | 1,474$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.31 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ducks | 29c | 1,000$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.4 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Golden Knights | 70c | 961.23$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.37 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…2ffbbacked Ducks | 31c | 643.55$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…d643backed Golden Knights | 74c | 613.41$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…2e90backed Ducks | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Golden Knights | 71c | 600$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…686dbacked Golden Knights | 72c | 574.07$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…6a58backed Golden Knights | 71c | 514$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Golden Knights | 71c | 439.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ducks | 11c | 403.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Golden Knights | 69c | 402.06$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…d4bdbacked Golden Knights | 72c | 297.11$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…a45dbacked Golden Knights | 72c | 258.65$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Golden Knights | 70c | 240$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Ducks | 18c | 209.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Golden Knights | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Ducks | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Ducks | 30c | 183.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Ducks | 30c | 153.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Golden Knights | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ducks | 19c | 109.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Golden Knights | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Golden Knights | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 236 | 65.7%155 W · 81 L | +15.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Ducks | 19c | 97.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ducks | 18c | 90.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Golden Knights | 77c | 87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Golden Knights | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Golden Knights | 70c | 60.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Golden Knights | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ducks | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Golden Knights | 71c | 51.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Golden Knights | 71c | 50.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Ducks | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Golden Knights | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Golden Knights | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Golden Knights | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Golden Knights | 71c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Golden Knights | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. DucksGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.