NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0d27efba28565c4612b6eaa9c6ca8fbd97aef9f92844b97341150549ba9f81f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Ducks | 73c | 5,220$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Golden Knights | 27c | 2,957$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.4 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Golden Knights | 28c | 2,108$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.14 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Golden Knights | 57c | 571.2$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.3 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Golden Knights | 31c | 491.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.35 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Golden Knights | 68c | 376.78$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.29 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Ducks | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Ducks | 69c | 259.35$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.95 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Ducks | 71c | 255.06$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.09 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ducks | 27c | 225$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Ducks | 27c | 224.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Ducks | 27c | 224.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fde…2af8backed Ducks | 73c | 220.51$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Ducks | 26c | 203.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ducks | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ducks | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Golden Knights | 74c | 192.62$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +11.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Golden Knights | 63c | 181.87$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Ducks | 70c | 178.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.36 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Golden Knights | 29c | 172.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.16 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7599…4293backed Golden Knights | 73c | 136.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Golden Knights | 67c | 122$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Ducks | 47c | 104.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Golden Knights | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Golden Knights | 45c | 92.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Ducks | 53c | 90.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Golden Knights | 47c | 86.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Ducks | 47c | 85.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Golden Knights | 44c | 78.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Golden Knights | 27c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Golden Knights | 28c | 70.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Ducks | 27c | 66.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Ducks | 62c | 55.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Ducks | 26c | 54.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Golden Knights | 29c | 51.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Golden Knights | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ducks | 59c | 41.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Golden Knights | 53c | 41.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Golden Knights | 35c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Ducks | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Golden Knights | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Golden Knights | 73c | 32.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Golden Knights | 53c | 30.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ducks | 57c | 29.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Golden Knights | 64c | 25.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Golden Knights | 66c | 24.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. DucksGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.