Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d50100c481a14b4a4e9be6d4df8e334c9166a6618cd37e54fea1d18723aa5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 44c | 3,489$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.98 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 67c | 862.87$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.21 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 44c | 847.08$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.37 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 748.32$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 22c | 747.22$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.77 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 6c | 524.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 24c | 478.05$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.03 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 53c | 468.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 25c | 335.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.94 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 28c | 318.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 35c | 281.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.06 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.84$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.22 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 42c | 249.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.59 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 12c | 246.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.11 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 201.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 186.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 179.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…4ad4backed No | 23c | 168.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 168.82$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 48c | 148.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 79c | 146.84$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 33c | 141.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…5e3bbacked No | 9c | 134$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 11c | 131.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 30c | 129.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 54c | 128.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 53c | 123.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 121.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 71c | 120.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 21c | 116.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 32c | 111.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 33c | 107.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 102.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 86.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 14c | 81.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 80.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 65c | 73.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 67.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…ee98backed Yes | 73c | 67.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 66.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 58.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 57.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…d74cbacked No | 31c | 53.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 20c | 50.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 27c | 50.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 42.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 26c | 41.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 66c | 41.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…79dbbacked Yes | 27c | 38.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 66c | 38.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 74c | 35.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 79c | 29.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 29.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 69c | 26.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…6b01backed Yes | 78c | 22.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 79c | 22.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 21.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 57c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 14.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.