Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa690f5833207111f2fbf2442054a5dc4a7654fc42b4ea37b7b748b11ab40757f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 14c | 785.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 56c | 588.25$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.49 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 22c | 440.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 360.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 360.43$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 4c | 330.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 308.43$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 287.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 73c | 262.78$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 221.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 34c | 205.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 52c | 199.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 40c | 198.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 191.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 159.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.34 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 22c | 136$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 43c | 112.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 42c | 105.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 105.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 38c | 104.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 66c | 102.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 21c | 101.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 100.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 58c | 97.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…fb59backed Yes | 40c | 95.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 83.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 33c | 79.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 68c | 78.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 26c | 78.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 52c | 69.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked Yes | 50c | 66.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 65.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 58c | 64.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 62c | 64.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 57c | 62.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 60c | 56.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 56.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 53c | 55.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 52.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 52.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…70e8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 49.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 46c | 46.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5896…bdc8backed Yes | 41c | 46.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 45.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 47c | 45.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 45c | 45.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 44c | 43.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0b…7b92backed Yes | 59c | 42.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 25c | 41.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 40c | 39.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed Yes | 37c | 38.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 37.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 46c | 35.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 35.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 42c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed No | 60c | 31.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 37c | 30.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…16b6backed Yes | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 62c | 21.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 59c | 20.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 65c | 17.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.