UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13db7ad6b9d99bab9890efd0691be9c690b1e5616c76f8d486d63f1a54c4915f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,784 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,180 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 53c | 5,996$3,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,177.75 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 1,062$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.06 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1a…89e5backed Over | 51c | 599.98$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 53c | 566.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Over | 52c | 512.28$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.52 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…4392backed Under | 47c | 342.55$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…317cbacked Under | 48c | 330.04$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Under | 49c | 296.4$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.8 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xbf99…9840backed Under | 47c | 284$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.82 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Over | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…99dcbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…86b1backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 48c | 116.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Over | 55c | 98.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x231a…a82fbacked Over | 53c | 71.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…67b0backed Over | 56c | 37.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…2c52backed Over | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 45c | 33.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…7420backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb3…8649backed Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card)Gregory Rodrigues won
- Will Brunno Ferreira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Gregory Rodrigues win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.