Swansea City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13ef60437972717fdaed3e1c753311a9902b61d4b1437d7e865ad2af2add59a1

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,348 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x00a0…bf76backed Over	40c	5,000$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,999.99	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	60c	2,203$1,311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,310.92	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	46c	1,626$756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$756.17	746	44.8%334 W · 412 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe56…593abacked Under	6c	1,600$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf99e…4d03backed Under	2c	971.43$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.43	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under	47c	851.17$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	49c	835.52$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.19	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6eb…bc82backed Under	8c	800$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4c…39c0backed Under	7c	700$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	59c	508.86$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.65	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over	72c	491.76$354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.69	192	35.9%69 W · 123 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed Under	63c	476.19$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under	46c	405.9$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	73	56.2%41 W · 32 L	+6.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+13%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over	56c	362.07$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.41	105	50.5%53 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	55c	356.14$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.58	2,550	47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	54c	223.47$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.8	809	53.6%434 W · 375 L	+11.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over	56c	223.21$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.21	321	64.5%207 W · 114 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	67cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	49c	205$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	556	54.9%305 W · 251 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79fb…c230backed Under	9c	204.4$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b13…fc15backed Under	50c	203.2$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e4…afeabacked Under	50c	201.51$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.76	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44fa…43b6backed Under	50c	201.48$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.74	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-49%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f1e…009abacked Under	50c	201.03$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb511…4224backed Under	50c	200.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ab0…0b80backed Under	50c	200.64$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.32	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8602…fd48backed Under	50c	199.72$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.86	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9643…3e01backed Under	50c	199.64$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.82	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff6c…1bc6backed Under	50c	199.26$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.63	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1fb…6a96backed Under	50c	197.94$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x680a…2ab4backed Under	50c	197.93$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8611…da80backed Under	50c	197.92$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe147…06d2backed Under	50c	197.83$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.92	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5dc…d448backed Under	50c	197.81$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.91	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a65…88e5backed Under	50c	197.8$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x232c…2dfebacked Under	50c	197.73$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.87	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb479…cdcabacked Under	50c	197.72$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9b…1e98backed Under	50c	197.71$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x022c…59c8backed Under	50c	197.7$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44df…7855backed Under	50c	196.62$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d04…249bbacked Under	50c	196.24$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.12	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1eda…2754backed Under	50c	196$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f25…4938backed Under	50c	195.97$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.99	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	47cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c7…28aebacked Under	50c	195.75$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.88	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2611…521ebacked Under	50c	195.5$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.75	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b8…8031backed Under	50c	195.16$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.58	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	53c	195.09$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.25	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdb…1d7cbacked Under	50c	194.87$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x398e…1cb4backed Under	50c	194.59$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdab5…95a1backed Under	50c	194.37$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…dee2backed Under	50c	193.72$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.86	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	45c	183.39$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.97	1,934	42.4%820 W · 1,114 L	-43.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Over	30c	168.7$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.09	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+46.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Over	61c	150$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.5	59	40.7%24 W · 35 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe77…8166backed Under	41c	120.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x505a…bb61backed Over	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+4.9wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+39.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	93	30.1%28 W · 65 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	596	45.5%271 W · 325 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	125	58.4%73 W · 52 L	+5.8wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	105	58.1%61 W · 44 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over	53c	94.71$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.71	252	56%141 W · 111 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae9f…4967backed Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Under	45c	86.81$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.06	75	50.7%38 W · 37 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc92d…9691backed Over	61c	80$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under	44c	75$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	561	58.6%329 W · 232 L	+29.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over	50c	61$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.5	150	38%57 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under	44c	53.79$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.67	815	59%481 W · 334 L	+32.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Over	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	124	50.8%63 W · 61 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe02a…8e83backed Over	42c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	122	51.6%63 W · 59 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d61…3113backed Over	64c	46.88$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.88	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Over	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	109	39.4%43 W · 66 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9817…28bcbacked Over	54c	44.3$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.38	40	50%20 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under	60c	41.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	202	59.9%121 W · 81 L	+13.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b91…27dcbacked Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	77	51.9%40 W · 37 L	-7.3wins	-0.10per pick	61cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	44c	35.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	1,615	53%856 W · 759 L	+33.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	279	55.9%156 W · 123 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Over	54c	33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.1	298	55%164 W · 134 L	+9.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Over	49c	32.96$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.81	177	45.2%80 W · 97 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked Over	38c	30$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.6	81	59.3%48 W · 33 L	+6.7wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33eb…b07ebacked Under	70c	27.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.91	44	72.7%32 W · 12 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	64cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc18…9b6ebacked Over	42c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.55	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bfe…0741backed Over	55c	21.42$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.64	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc203…8beebacked Under	63c	21.37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.9wins	-0.37per pick	62cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Under	62c	19.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	79	43%34 W · 45 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf16…b409backed Under	73c	15.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-6.0wins	-0.29per pick	38cpaid	-85.3%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Swansea City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5this page
Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Swansea City AFC won
Swansea City AFC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Swansea City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Swansea City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Swansea City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Swansea City AFC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event