NFL · resolved market
Spread: Saints (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14046f6800586fecaa79b6ca76375be8cccea6863faa83217ea28f0d957fe82e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Saints, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Titans | 50c | 7,160$3,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,579.96 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Saints | 49c | 5,062$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,581.78 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Titans | 51c | 5,038$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,569.6 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saints | 50c | 4,997$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.8 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Saints | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Titans | 52c | 1,723$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.71 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Titans | 50c | 1,611$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.7 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Saints | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Saints | 50c | 1,002$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Saints | 49c | 684.08$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.88 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Titans | 52c | 638.67$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.11 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Saints | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Saints | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Titans | 51c | 381$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.31 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Saints | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Titans | 52c | 290$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Saints | 48c | 208.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Titans | 52c | 155.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…d693backed Saints | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c01…428ebacked Titans | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.28per pick | 54cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Saints | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Titans | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Saints | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Saints | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Titans | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Titans | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Saints | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Titans | 51c | 22.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Saints (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Saints (-0.5)Titans won
- Saints vs. TitansSaints won
- Saints vs. Titans: O/U 38.5Over won
- Saints vs. Titans: O/U 39.5Over won
- Spread: Saints (-2.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Titans (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Titans (-5.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.