NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs Magic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14b44e498ceff873a394844ce742ad89dfc1c97b6da5064c355514dea4542cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Lakers, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Magic | 38c | 11,580$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,179.6 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Lakers | 58c | 8,203$4,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,734.12 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Lakers | 53c | 3,265$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.91 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Magic | 37c | 1,217$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.39 | 613 | 45.5%279 W · 334 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Magic | 37c | 820.06$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.3 | 377 | 34%128 W · 249 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Lakers | 63c | 800$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…bcefbacked Lakers | 63c | 793.95$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 63.5%172 W · 99 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Lakers | 63c | 533.18$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.83 | 184 | 48.9%90 W · 94 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Lakers | 62c | 499.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Lakers | 64c | 466.15$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Magic | 38c | 399.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.99 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Lakers | 62c | 324.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e0…b2b4backed Lakers | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Magic | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Lakers | 62c | 155.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 618 | 35.4%219 W · 399 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…1219backed Magic | 37c | 150$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 236 | 58.1%137 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Lakers | 63c | 140.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…4b2ebacked Magic | 38c | 127$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…72b6backed Lakers | 17c | 108.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Magic | 36c | 93.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…c995backed Lakers | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…5093backed Magic | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 155 | 38.1%59 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…30abbacked Magic | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Lakers | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f51…af3bbacked Magic | 35c | 30.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Magic | 61c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Lakers | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Lakers | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.