Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c35ac88e2de506a89313ae8f6ad27bff73d6c60d0aa447682c3649916ca546
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 222.14$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.78 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 221.79$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 42c | 154.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 131.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 56c | 121.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 206 | 44.2%91 W · 115 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 48c | 102.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…34a7backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 80.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 50c | 74.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 68.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 55c | 63.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e8…4175backed Yes | 46c | 58.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 54.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 55c | 47.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 47.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 49c | 47.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb771…2419backed No | 56c | 44.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 56c | 39.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…5d1bbacked No | 56c | 39.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…aef1backed Yes | 47c | 38.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 42c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 34.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed Yes | 36c | 32.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 47c | 32.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…9cd9backed Yes | 52c | 31.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 54c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 26.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 26.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 54c | 24.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 51c | 24.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 49c | 22.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 19.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 18.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.