Premier League · resolved market
Will Leicester City FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c47b3f37061d4040c0885796f1b4c7b3c6f9e6caf3700c2ad80e578fb7842a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 162 | 38.3%62 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,172$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Yes | 41c | 1,070$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 907.4$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.63 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked No | 72c | 869.43$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.44 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 845.74$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.98 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 72c | 775$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 28c | 748$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.44 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 63c | 475.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.96 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…c878backed Yes | 24c | 416.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -9.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…9b44backed Yes | 46c | 313.74$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 308.37$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f78ebacked Yes | 24c | 295.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 39c | 269.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 69c | 225.3$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 219 | 65.3%143 W · 76 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 29c | 131.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 25c | 107.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 25cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 27c | 103.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 77c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 69.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 33c | 62.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 307 | 39.4%121 W · 186 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 20c | 53.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1891…fd78backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 70c | 40.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3189…b243backed Yes | 38c | 26.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…95ccbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…9779backed Yes | 47c | 22.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…c87fbacked No | 64c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leicester City FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Leicester City FC win on 2025-12-26?No won
- Will Watford FC win on 2025-12-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.