NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14dffec5a6e34510205665e33290fff243504f0f9e970a95d1505ec3c049df86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Golden Knights, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9976…67dabacked Golden Knights | 43c | 58,327$25,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,080.72 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Kraken | 57c | 50,000$28,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,500 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kraken | 58c | 7,522$4,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,159.09 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Kraken | 59c | 6,500$3,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,665 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Golden Knights | 42c | 6,429$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kraken | 57c | 4,366$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.68 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kraken | 57c | 1,853$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.79 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Golden Knights | 42c | 1,429$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Golden Knights | 41c | 1,368$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.72 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Golden Knights | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Golden Knights | 3c | 958.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Golden Knights | 41c | 829$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.89 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Golden Knights | 41c | 628.34$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.62 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Golden Knights | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Kraken | 59c | 447.62$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Golden Knights | 29c | 380.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Golden Knights | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Golden Knights | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Golden Knights | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +189%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Kraken | 56c | 156.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Golden Knights | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kraken | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Kraken | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 23c | 99.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Kraken | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Golden Knights | 42c | 52.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 162 | 37%60 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kraken | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kraken | 73c | 51.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Kraken | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Golden Knights | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Golden Knights | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Golden Knights | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Kraken | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Kraken | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d15…2d65backed Kraken | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Golden Knights | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9021…bf4ebacked Kraken | 59c | 30.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Kraken | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Kraken vs. Golden KnightsKraken won
- Kraken vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.