NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c2c21dfc8970e9c2c3fcdbe35a371577f920842bf791befd62a44c2c70f997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3817…0399backed Over | 0c | 11,580$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Under | 58c | 11,000$6,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,636.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 42c | 4,098$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721.07 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 42c | 2,690$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 42c | 2,340$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.8 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 55c | 1,156$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.5 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 44c | 999.94$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.97 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 747.08$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.83 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 744.17$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.26 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 653$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.68 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…7cb7backed Under | 49c | 595.11$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 557.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.36 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 54c | 515.31$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.57 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x214d…cd09backed Over | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a36…4121backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 475.8$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.17 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 57c | 403$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.36 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…4419backed Under | 61c | 327.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 52c | 325.96$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…e0edbacked Under | 57c | 276.98$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.37 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 42c | 263$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 56c | 246.6$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 202.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc897…f3b3backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 57c | 191$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Under | 50c | 177$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 47c | 173.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 57c | 151.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked Under | 58c | 99.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 44c | 91.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9335…0c21backed Under | 57c | 85.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…56a9backed Under | 65c | 84.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Under | 48c | 82.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 50c | 69.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 56c | 62.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…5d99backed Under | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Under | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 46c | 40.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…cc45backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 47c | 36.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58c…5fc5backed Over | 45c | 32.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…76b0backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 45c | 29.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 24.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 56c | 21.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Under | 56c | 20.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…80cbbacked Under | 61c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5this page
- Kraken vs. Golden KnightsKraken won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.